What a thrill: Brighton host 1996 Coca Cola Cup runners up Leeds United
Have you looked at the Premier League table lately? If the answer to that is no as Brighton prepare to host 1996 Coca Cola Cup runners up The Leeds United, then my advice would be to give it a miss.
Despite being the world’s biggest football club, The Leeds United are 17th in the standings. And yet victory at the Amex would put them just three points behind the Albion.
Brighton somehow remain ninth despite a wretched run of seven games without a win. Talking about the Albion being in the top 10 may sound nice, but it does not mean quite as much when the relegation zone is now only a couple of defeats away.
You would have got long odds on that being the case, even as recently as a month ago. When the Albion and Manchester City faced off as the fourth and third placed teams in the league respectively, Brighton fans might have been tempted to have a look at William Hill UK offers and chuck a few quid on the Albion finishing in the top six.
Forget European tours now. With seven games set to be crammed into December including tough fixtures against the likes of West Ham United, Spurs, Manchester United and Chelsea, there is every chance that the Seagulls could find themselves pulled into the dogfight at the bottom over the festive season.
Graham Potter needs to find a way to end this wretched run. Or else Brighton will be in danger of journeys to foreign lands extending as far as Cardiff and Swansea in the Championship.
The Leeds United at home suddenly looks massive. We just have to hope Brighton are now overawed by the occasion of facing the world’s biggest club.
The Leeds United this season
When The Leeds United finished ninth in their first season back in the Premier League, their ever-realistic supporters talked about pushing for Europe this time out.
Not many were willing to contemplate the prospect of second season syndrome because, well, The Leeds United are the biggest club in the world.
It is rather funny then that second season syndrome is exactly what the Peacocks are suffering from. Two wins, five draws and five defeats leave them in that lowly spot of 17th, only two points above the relegation zone.
Not a place you want to be really when you look at the three clubs below. Burnley always come good under Sean Dyche and Norwich City and Newcastle United will both surely improve for their recent changes in the dugout.
To put The Leeds United’s struggles down purely to second season syndrome would not do justice to their injury problems, however.
FIFA World Coach of the Year 2020 finalist Marcelo Bielsa has been dealt a cruel hand when it comes to absentees. England midfielder Kalvin Phillips is the beating heart of this Peacocks team and he has missed several matches.
Last season’s top scorer Patrick Bamford is currently ruled out, Raphina has spent time in the treatment room and the wonderfully named Robin Koch – the defender signed to replace a certain Ben White in the summer of 2020 – has managed only one Premier League appearance so far.
Once The Leeds United get their wounded back, then they will fancy their chances of climbing out of the mire. For now though, the odds seem stacked against them and that is why it is so important for Brighton to take advantage at the Amex.
Team news
The injury problems at Elland Road run so deep that nobody really knows how The Leeds United will line up – not even their own supporters.
When we spoke to David Wilkinson from The Scratching Shed, he could not begin to guess what Bielsa’s starting XI would be, so it seems pretty pointless us devoting any time to it.
As for Brighton, Robert Sanchez is available again after suspension and will surely come straight back in for Jason Steele, even if Sussex’s most prolific golfer did not put a foot wrong when swapping 18 holes for 90 minutes in goal at Villa Park last time out.
Most Brighton fans will be praying that Potter ditches the false nine for a winnable home game against struggling opposition. It did not work against Newcastle, it did not work at Villa and chances are it will not work against The Leeds United.
This looks to be the sort of fixture which is crying out for Neal Maupay. Everyone knows that Maupay saves his better performances for clubs who he has history with.
During his time at Brentford, he became public enemy number one amongst The Leeds United supporters for always scoring against the Peacocks and celebrating in front of their fans.
Pair the Frenchman with Trossard and maybe Brighton will end their barren run of only scoring from open play in one of their past six matches – the 2-2 draw at Liverpool.
Key battles
Brighton are yet to face The Leeds United when Phillips has been on the pitch, which might play a part in why none of the European Super League managed to do a top flight double over the Peacocks last season and yet the Albion did.
There is a chance Phillips might not feature at the Amex on this occasion too. In an incident which sums up The Leeds United’s wretched luck with injuries, Phillips required treatment to his head after enjoying himself a little too much at the club’s Christmas Party in London on Monday night.
Should Phillips be fit enough to start, the battle between him and Yves Bissouma in the middle of the park will be central to the outcome.
Another intriguing area to keep an eye on will be down Brighton’s left. Raphina is The Leeds United’s top scorer with five goals from the right hand side.
The Brazilian – presuming he recovers from the injury which ruled him out of last week’s trip to Spurs – will find himself up against Marc Cucurella who loves to bomb forward, especially at home.
Will Cucurella’s desire to attack mean Raphina is pinned back and nullified? Or will we be relying on the defensive side of Cucurella’s game to keep the Peacocks man quiet?
Recent form
Wonder if the broadcasters are regretting picking this one for live television coverage? Brighton and The Leeds United have one win between them from their last 12 combined matches in all competitions.
The last time the Albion won a game was mid-September. The sun was still shining, petrol was only 123p a litre and Owen Patterson was odds on to keep his job.
- 20/11/21: Aston Villa 2-0 Brighton
- 06/11/21: Brighton 1-1 Newcastle
- 30/10/21: Liverpool 2-2 Brighton
- 27/10/21: Leicester 2-2 Brighton
- 23/10/21: Brighton 1-4 Man City
- 16/10/21: Norwich 0-0 Brighton
They may not have many wins in their last six, but The Leeds United’s form guide has some decent results in it. The Peacocks had a good first half at Spurs before Antonio Conte inspired his team as only a ballistic Italian can into coming from behind to win.
A 1-1 draw with Leicester remains a fine point even if the Foxes are stuck in a bit of a rut currently. The same goes for drawing at Wolves, who have been one of the most in-form teams in the top flight in recent months.
And as for The Leeds United’s one victory, that came at Carrow Road – a venue where Brighton were one astonishing Josh Sargent miss and two world-class Dan Burn blocks away from losing.
- 21/11/21: Spurs 2-1 The Leeds United
- 07/11/21: The Leeds United 1-1 Leicester
- 31/10/21: Norwich 1-2 The Leeds United
- 26/10/21: Arsenal 2-0 The Leeds United
- 23/10/21: The Leeds United 1-1 Wolves
- 16/10/21: Southampton 1-0 The Leeds United
Last time we met
Brighton all-but guaranteed Premier League safety with their 2-0 win over The Leeds United at the Amex back in May.
Danny Welbeck was the star of the show, earning a first half penalty for Pascal Gross to convert. Welbeck then sewed up the win in the final 10 minutes, a stunning turn and stonking hit which ended up winning our WAB Goal of the Season 2020-21 award.
It was also the day when Lewis Dunk produced that outrageous chest back under immense pressure to Robert Sanchez. Nobody could quite believe what they seen, especially Gareth Southgate who reacted to it by calling White up to his England squad for Euro 2020.
Brighton v The Leeds United head-to-head
You may want to sit down before reading this next part of our match preview. The Leeds United might be the biggest club in the world, but Brighton have beaten them on 18 occasions. That is the exact same number of the 47 matches between the two which the Peacocks have won, leaving 11 draws.
The Albion’s surprisingly impressive record comes largely from the hold they have had over The Leeds United in the Amex era. Brighton have lost just twice to The Leeds United in the past 14 encounters, picking up 10 wins in that time.
A reason why Brighton will win
Brighton always beat The Leeds United.
A reason why The Leeds United will win
They are the biggest club in the world!
Brighton v The Leeds United betting
In the Championship era, betting on there to be lots of goals was one of the easiest predictions you could make when Brighton faced The Leeds United.
Both teams would nearly always score, the Albion would often win it at the death – hello Alan Navarro, Leonardo Ulloa and Bobby Zamora – and someone would usually end up sent off.
A special mention in that particular department for El-Hadj Diouf, who saw red for an astonishing celebration after scoring a penalty at Elland Road in April 2012 of running towards the Brighton fans, grabbing his testicles and pointing to his bottom.
The two Premier League games to date have been much tighter affairs. That makes it harder to know where to put your money.
A safe bet seems like the draw. This is a game neither side will want to lose and although the Albion are not currently scoring enough goals to win games, they are hard to beat.
You can find the spoils being shared at a general 5/2 with most sportsbooks.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 1-1 The Leeds United
Prediction of Xg: Brighton 7.1 – 0.4 The Leeds United
Percentage of The Leeds United fans who think they are the biggest club in the world: 99 percent
