Brighton to ask Premier League to award bonus points for xG in future
Brighton & Hove Albion are set to approach the Premier League with the idea of awarding bonus points for expected goals (xG) in future according to reports coming out of the Amex.
The idea is said to have been floated at a recent board meeting. Deputy Chairman Paul Barber is now to put the proposal forward during April’s meeting of top flight chiefs when other potential game-changing issues like Project Big Picture will be back on the table.
Brighton are said to be open to the idea of supporting a renewed attempt to get the controversial Project Big Picture plans – which will concentrate power in the hands of the top flight’s biggest club in exchange for more money trickling down the pyramid – approved, provided there is backing for the Seagulls’ xG proposal.
The Albion had previously been against Project Big Picture when it was first mooted in October. That position may now become more flexible as the Seagulls seek ways to make the most out of being the Kings of Premier League xG.
Brighton have produced some astonishing moments in front of goal in the 2020-21 season with a highlights reel of misses longer than Zak Synder’s cut of Justice League. Having watched Justice League recently, the Albion’s profligacy in front of goal also happens to be much more entertaining.
Among the WAB personal favourites are Aaron Connolly managing to put a free header from two yards out both high and wide in the 1-1 draw with Sheffield United, Alireza Jahanbakhsh putting an identical chance against the bar minutes later, and Neal Maupay’s penalty against Liverpool calmly rolled the wrong side of the post.
The expected points table – calculated through a club’s xG rather than how frequently the ball actually hits the back of the net – has the Albion as high as sixth.
If Graham Potter’s side were more clinical, they could be looking at Europa League qualification rather than fighting a relegation battle for a fourth consecutive season.
Brighton’s proposal involves clubs being awarded an additional point for every two expected goals they do not score. The Albion are currently underperforming their xG by 11.58, so under the new system they would receive six bonus points rounded up, enough to lift them above Crystal Palace and into 12th.
Early indications are that the proposals will receive backing from Fulham. The Cottagers have been nearly as terrible as Brighton in front of goal, underperforming their own expected goals by 11.16. The six bonus points they would receive would see them overtake Newcastle United in the current standings.
A Brighton insider with knowledge of the plans claims that Barber told the board meeting: “If we can convince the Premier League to award points for xG, we won’t have to buy a new striker in the summer.”
“It will push us closer to Tony’s ambition of becoming a top 10 club, and then people can stop telling us it is a results business whenever the decision to award Graham a six-year contact when he had won only four games of Premier League football in his life comes up.”
“Surrendering our power to the big six might not seem like a worthy compromise for getting xG recognised in the table, but our expected goals are so good that we would become a member of the big six under the new points system anyway.”
“We might even be able to justify increasing the cost of a bag of Starburst further if we are putting more points on the board.”
“Scoring goals and winning games is very 20th century. It is time football got with the times and started awarding almost scoring instead.”
