Brighton face Everton just three wins from Europe
Sorry Rachel Riley, as lovely as you are and holding a special place amongst the Albion fanbase for having a 35 page thread on North Stand Chat, your acclaimed mathematical skills are not needed ahead of Brighton against Everton.
The Toffees’ visit to the Amex starts the final countdown of the 2022-23 Premier League season for Brighton. Six games left to play and three victories needed to guarantee European football for the first time in Albion history.
Nine points would see the Seagulls acquire a total of 64, secure a seventh place finish and with it a spot in the Europa Conference. The very best Aston Villa currently in eighth can hope for being 63 points.
Brighton could yet win more than their final three and that may allow them to jump into fifth or sixth to qualify for the Europa League.
As for the Champions League? Manchester United in fourth are eights point away. The Albion have two games in hand. It would be an almighty ask to reel in either the Red Devils or the Saudi Sportswashers at Newcastle United and dine at the top table next season. But a girl has to dream, right?
The rest of the football world probably looks at Brighton versus Everton and thinks home banker. And let’s be honest, given the club’s respective seasons so far, it should be.
Everton are second bottom and have scored just 16 goals since the Premier League resumed following the World Cup. Their long and proud top flight status currently looks more at risk than it has done at any other point in the last 70 years.
In contrast, the Albion have just beaten Wolves and Manchester United at the Amex, plundering seven goals along the way whilst rotating the likes of Moises Caicedo, Alexis Mac Allister, Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March for the run in.
But… and there is always a but… the man in the Everton dugout is enough to break Brighton fans out in a cold sweat.
There is something eminently frightening about Sean Dyche, beyond the fact he looks like Stone Cold Steve Austin and sounds like he eats gravel for breakfast.
Brighton have a terrible record against teams managed by Dyche, even when those teams are not particularly good. Exhibit A – Burnley at home last season.
The Clarets had not won an away game all year when they arrived in Sussex in late February. Cue a 3-0 Burnley win in one of the most disappointing results of the Amex Era.
It turned out to be the ideal day to drink seven glasses of wine in each concourse as part of the now infamous WAB Amex Wine Tasting feature, making the terrible football on show something of a blur.
In total, Dyche has managed against Brighton 18 times in his career. 16 for Burnley and twice when Watford boss. He has only lost five times.
The Albion struggle against Dyche sides at the best of times; let alone one fighting for their lives as new employers Everton currently are.
And would it not be #TypicalBrighton to go from six points from two unbelievable performances at the Amex against very good sides to losing at home to Everton in a must-win game for European qualification? Yes, yes it would.
That is what makes the visit of the Toffees so interesting. One of the biggest changes Roberto De Zerbi has made as Brighton head coach is almost eradicating the whole #TypicalBrighton thing, if you overlook the Carabao Cup cock up at Charlton Athletic.
Fantastic and unexpected results are now no longer followed by absolute shockers. Elimination of FA Cup holders Liverpool did not lead to losing to League Two Grimsby Town in the quarter finals, for example.
The Albion have this new-found mentality that they can beat anyone on their day. So, as some of us Brighton supporters fret about Dyche and his historical hold over Brighton, De Zerbi and his fearless young squad will (hopefully) not give a shit about what happened last season, or that the Albion lost 1-0 at Watford in November 2011.
We said before Brighton 6-0 Wolves that seven points from three consecutive home games would be a brilliant return.
Nine out of nine would be unreal; completing the set against Everton meaning only two more wins are required from Arsenal, Newcastle United and Aston Villa away and Southampton and Manchester City at the Amex.
De Zerbi’s recent decision to start rotating his squad means there is little point in us sitting here and second guessing who might play for Brighton against Everton and who might be rested.
Pascal Gross, Joel Veltman and Evan Ferguson will not be risked if there remain doubts over their fitness. De Zebri might be dealing with a lengthy injury list, but that has had little detrimental impact so far.
Trust in the manager is high enough and confidence within the squad at such a level that it does not matter who the XI is. The Albion these days tend to get the job done, even with Caicedo, Mac Allister, Mitoma and March sitting things out on the bench.
And if they get the job done at the Amex on this bonus Bank Holiday Monday, Europe moves within touching distance. Another big evening of football awaits.
