Match Preview: Must win for Brighton against rock bottom Burnley

Last time we wrote a match preview for Brighton v Burnley back in July, we managed to upset quite a lot of Clarets supporters and people from the Lancashire town in general.

Our crime? Reminding everyone that Burnley fans hired a plane to fly a ‘White Lives Matter’ banner over the Etihad Stadium. And that they booed Gaetan Bong for reporting that he believed he had been racially abused for Jay Rodriguez.

And that several thousand of them sung homophobic songs towards the Albion support at Turf Moor in 2018. And that one delightful man charmingly screamed “you ****ing faggot” at a member of the WAB team despite the fact he was with his partner, who happens to be a woman. And that the town has previously returned BNP councillors.

So to avoid anyone from Burnley getting annoyed at us for reminding readers of those facts again, we will not mention then. Let’s just stick to football and what is a massive, massive game for both sides given their perilous positions near the bottom of the table.

Burnley this season
It has been a disappointing start for Burnley who are yet to win a Premier League game in 2020-21. They currently sit rock bottom of the table with just a solitary point from six matches so far.

Rumours have been rife for some time that Sean Dyche is unhappy with a lack of backing in the transfer market and his fears of getting left behind as the rest of the division strengthen seem to be playing out.

The Clarets’ marquee signing was a certain Dale Stephens; however good Stephens was for the Albion, any Premier League outfit who is unveiling a defensive midfield replacement for Jeff Hendrick as their big summer capture is likely to have a long, hard winter ahead.

Burnley have been here before, of course. They started the 2018-19 season in poor form after finishing in the top 10 in 2017-18, eventually recovering to be way clear of relegation. Dyche will be hoping that he can eke a similar improvement from his players this time around as the campaign goes on.

They could also be under new ownership very soon. Egyptian businessman Mohamed El Kashashy has been linked with a £200 million takeover. Should that be completed, Dyche would presumably find himself with the sort of funds that would finally put the Clarets on a par financially with the rest of the division.

Given that he has delivered two top 10 finishes in the past three seasons with little more than a bag of magic beans – Burnley’s performances have been a genuine fairy tale compared to Plucky Little Bournemouth and all their roubles for example – it would be fascinating to see what Dyche could do with real backing.

Recent form
Brighton and Burnley have just one win from 13 Premier League games between them so far this season. Even Del Boy would struggle to convince anyone to pay £15 to watch two sides so woefully out-of-form on Sky Sports PPV at 5.30pm on a Friday evening (here is the link to the Brighton Food Bank for those who can afford to donate again).

The Clarets solitary point came away against West Bromwich Albion three weeks ago. They have lost against Leicester City, Southampton, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea.

Graham Potter has not revealed what Brighton fans are allowed to expect from Burnley at home, but for us it has to be a win. All this praise of pretty football and saying results will come is starting to get a little boring now – and if we cannot beat the side bottom of the table at the Amex who arrive without a win all season, who can we beat?

Brighton v Burnley head-to-head
Brighton and Burnley have only become regular opponents in the 21st century with the majority of the 35 meetings between the two clubs taking place in the second tier.

The draw is the most common result. 13 matches have ended level with the Albion winning 11 and Burnley 11. That is not to say that this a fixture that is boring though.

In the last 20 years, we have seen Brighton come from 2-0 down in the 90th minute to draw 2-2 at Withdean; Mark McCammon chucked off the team bus and made to get the train home from Turf Moor; McCammon phone into the BBC Radio Sussex Fans Phone In to argue with Ian Hart live on air; Burnley score their fair share of final minute equalisers; and Yves Bissouma smash in a rocket for his first Premier League goal last time we met.

Brighton’s head-to-head record with Burnley

Last six meetings
• Burnley 1-2 Brighton (Premier League, 26/07/20)
• Brighton 1-1 Brighton (Premier League, 14/09/19)
• Brighton 1-3 Burnley (Premier League, 09/02/19)
• Burnley 1-0 Brighton (Premier League, 08/12/18)
• Burnley 0-0 Brighton (Premier League, 28/04/18)
• Brighton 0-0 Burnley (Premier League, 16/12/17)

That 2-1 win for Brighton back in July – when we got in trouble for our match preview – was the Albion’s first victory over Burnley in 10 attempts, stretching back to a 2-0 win in August 2013 when Leonardo Ulloa and Andrew Crofts scored to give Oscar Garcia his first home victory.

For much of that time, Brighton v Burnley was a low scoring affair. Since Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes returned to haunt the Albion when the Clarets won 3-1 at the Amex in February 2019, both teams have scored in the subsequent three meetings.

With neither side managing to keep the goals out so far in 2020-21, this latest instalment could easily be a high-scoring clash. That still does not mean you should pay £15 to watch it, though (Brighton Food Bank link again – please donate if you can).

Team news
Much of the preview to Brighton v Burnley will focus on Neal Maupay, who missed last week’s 2-1 defeat to Spurs for ‘tactical reasons’ which it later transpired were because he had an altercation with a teammate after the West Bromwich Albion game.

Graham Potter said in his pre-Burnley press conference that a line had been drawn under the incident and Maupay was available for selection again.

Which is just as well as we cannot go into a must win game against the division’s bottom club without a recognised striker in the starting XI.

Leandro Trossard tried against Spurs but he is simply not suited to playing as a lone centre forward – either Maupay or Danny Welbeck have to start. Some Brighton fans will be clamouring for Andi Zeqiri to be given a go, but it would not be fair to heap so much pressure on a 21-year-old from the Swiss second division in a match of such of importance.

Potter’s other selection dilemma comes in goal. Robert Sanchez has seemingly leaped from fourth choice to first almost overnight and he did not put a foot wrong at Spurs after being surprisingly chosen to start ahead of Maty Ryan. The 22-year-old deserves to keep the shirt, and we say that as the chief cheerleaders in the Ryan Fan Club.

Burnley’s danger men
Brighton have a long and proud tradition of allowing their former players to score against them. Can you imagine anything more typical of the Albion than Stephens popping up with a 90th minute winner having scored one Premier League goal in the past three seasons in Seagulls colours?

It does not need to be Stephens doing the damage. Burnley also have the aforementioned Barnes and Wood on their books still and as we have noted already in this match preview, it would not be the first time that two thirds of the Albion’s 2010-11 strike force have notched on their return to Sussex.

Wood in particular has made a habit of it everywhere he has been since that glorious League One season under Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named.

The betting value for Brighton v Burnley
We know that Maupay is at his best when he has a point to prove, which is why he often scores against rival clubs and opposition players who goad him.

What better way then for the Frenchman to show Potter he was wrong for dropping him and to silence all those rumours swirling about his oversized ego than by notching against Burnley?

Maupay is a best priced 13/10 to score anytime – although we would advise waiting to see the Brighton starting line up and bench before staking any money, just in case Potter was talking gibberish when he said Maupay would be involved.

An interesting subplot
How Stephens gets on will be interesting. It has been a long time since Brighton have come up against a player who spent six years and made over 200 appearances for the club as an opponent.

If the Amex were full, he would be worthy of a standing ovation before kick off despite what a lot of the boo boys thought about his performances and abilities.

How much impact can he have against a team he knows inside out? Conversely, how do Brighton go about stopping a player they know better than most? Especially if he plays in the number 10 role, a position he hardly ever filled in Albion colours but one in which Dyche has seemingly used him on occasions so far.

A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Burnley at home
We touched on it earlier in the preview, but that game where Steve Sidwell went berserk against Burnley to rescue a point for Brighton at Withdean in 2002 was incredible.

When do the Albion ever score two goals in 90 seconds? Let alone two in 90 seconds of injury time to comeback from 2-0 down. Let alone by a teenage midfielder.

That was the day we knew that Sidwell was a special talent. It came as little surprise when those bastards at Reading trumped Dick Knight’s offer to Arsenal and Sidwell ended up making a permanent move to the Madjeski Stadium a few weeks later.

A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Burnley at home
The Clarets’ 3-1 win at the Amex in February 2019 was one of the first signs that all was not right in the final throes of the Chris Hughton era.

Burnley arrived at the Amex below Brighton in the table and even our match preview predicted a Seagulls victory – and yet the visitors ran out easy 3-1 winners.

A lot of Albion fans swept it under the carpet as a one-off or by saying our performances earlier in the campaign meant we were too good to go down.

Just two more wins followed all season as we survived relegation only because Fulham and Crystal Palace beat Cardiff City in the last few weeks of the campaign.

A similar defeat to Burnley this time around would point to an equally grim time ahead. Which is why Brighton have to do more than learn and take the positives from this one.

Burnley’s most famous fan
Burnley do not have many famous fans, but we bloody love one of the few they do – former Labour spin doctor Alastair Campbell. Malcolm Tucker from The Thick Of It is said to be based on Campbell, which is a good enough reason to be enamoured with the bloke.

Prediction
We are going for a rare WAB match preview prediction of an Albion win – Brighton 2-1 Burnley with Maupay bouncing back with at least one of the goals. Please.