Match Preview: Southampton v Brighton & Hove xG on the BBC

This is something of an historic match preview as the 96 mile trip along the coast to Southampton is the first time that a Brighton league game has ever been shown live on the BBC.

That means that Graham Potter’s side have the opportunity to showcase their xG to an audience far in excess of the numbers that Sky Sports and BT normally pull in.

For the good of the country, Brighton’s debut on the national broadcaster could not have come at a better time. With the nation reeling and thoroughly depressed by lockdown, a failing economy and the whole Royal Family situation, what better way to lift spirits than by everyone having a bloody good laugh as the Albion missing a succession of chances in comedy fashion at St Mary’s?

Southampton this season
Southampton are having the sort of weird and wonderful campaign that we imagine is an absolute dream to write about. They have hit the highs by topping the Premier League table at one point and then less than three months later managed to lose a game 9-0 for the second season running.

The Saints’ loss of form since December when they looked like they could challenge for the top six has come about because of injuries; every club seems to be suffering (hello Tariq Lamptey, Adam Webster and Solly March) this season, even if Liverpool fans would have you believe the only injury crisis in England is at Anfield.

Such variations in results make it hard to predict what Southampton will do next, or indeed where they will finish the season. Brighton, Newcastle and Fulham might have been looking at their collapse and thinking the Saints could yet be reeled into the relegation battle over the final 12 games, but beating Sheffield United last weekend appeared to ease any fears of an unlikely fight against the drop.

The likelihood is that Southampton will finish somewhere in upper midtable, a good place to be for a club who are looking to build slowly under Ralph Hasenhüttl.

Recent form
Aside from getting the opportunity to marvel at the Albion’s xG, the rest of the nation could be forgiven for feeling pretty disappointed that a rare fixture on free-to-air television is Southampton v Brighton as both teams come into the game in ghastly form.

The Seagulls have not won since victory at Anfield over five weeks and six games ago. Southampton meanwhile have just one win in their past 10 Premier League matches, that 2-0 victory over the already-doomed Blades last weekend.

Hasenhüttl’s side did give a decent account of themselves in midweek against Manchester City to suggest that the win against Sheffield United might have sparked a turnaround.

Brighton fans will be hoping not – as the next couple of sections of our match preview are about to reveal, the Albion need all the help they can get when it comes to facing Southampton.

Brighton v Southampton head-to-head
This will be the 97th meeting between Brighton and Southampton, a fixture played over 11 different competitions and with a history stretching back 118 years.

The sides first met during the 1903-04 campaign in the Southern League, which is where the majority of clashes have taken place. Brighton have a good Southern League record against Southampton, winning 13, drawing seven and losing 11 of the 26 meetings.

Less impressive is what has happened since the clubs joined the Football League in 1920. The Saints have subsequently been victorious in 26 of 48 games in Football League competitions with Brighton winning only eight. That feeds into an overall record of 28 Seagulls wins, 25 draws and 44 Saints successes. Ouch.

Brighton’s head-to-head record with Southampton

Last six meetings
• Brighton 1-2 Southampton (Premier League, 07/12/20)
• Southampton 1-1 Brighton (Premier League, 16/07/20)
• Brighton 0-2 Southampton (Premier League, 24/08/19)
• Brighton 0-1 Southampton (Premier League, 30/03/19)
• Southampton 2-2 Brighton (Premier League, 17/09/18)
• Brighton 0-1 Southampton (League Cup Second Round, 28/08/18)

Southampton are one of three teams that Brighton are yet to beat since winning promotion to the Premier League in 2017 – the others being Leicester City and Manchester City.

The strange thing about the Saints’ dominance is that a lot of it has been brought about by circumstances. Their 2-1 win at the Amex in December had a big helping hand from VAR and a season earlier the Albion were undone by Florin Andone losing his mind and getting sent off before half an hour had been played.

Without technology sticking its beak in and a hot-headed striker who cannot control his temperament, Brighton could feasibly have two wins from their last four against Southampton and we have no need to point out in our match preview that the Saints are a club who have a hoodoo over the Albion.

Team news
No good news on the injury front. Lamptey is out for the season following surgery on his troublesome hamstring and rumours are now swirling that we will not be seeing Adam Webster again in 2020-21 either. With Solly March also ruled out, that is three of the Albion’s most important players on the shelf for the foreseeable future.

Joining them in the treatment room is Aaron Connolly. Potter confirmed in his Southampton v Brighton preview press conference that Connolly had been diagnosed with a cracked rib, one week after telling everyone that the Irish striker had a back spasm. The ghost of Harold Shipman continues to work wonders in the Albion medical department.

Southampton’s injury list is pretty extensive with the headline news being Danny Ings’ absence. Theo Walcott and Oriol Romeu are other big names out whilst the major selection issue facing Hasenhüttl is whether Alex McCarthy or Fraser Forster starts in goal.

Southampton’s danger men
Ings is their main source of goals so for him to be missing is good for Brighton. The Saints’ star man this season has been centre back Jannik Vestergaard, yet another example of a young player who Southampton signed cheaply from Europe and will surely sell onto one of the big boys for a massive profit.

Vestergaard always seems to play well against Brighton. He took advantage of some typically shocking set piece marking to score the Saints’ first at the Amex back in December and was only denied a winner at St Mary’s last July thanks to that stunning full stretch fingertip save from Maty Ryan.

The betting value for Southampton v Brighton
Brighton have drawn their three Premier League visits to St Mary’s so far, which makes it fairly obvious where to put your money. 9/4 are the best odds available for stalemate number four.

There are a couple of other bets worth considering. We just mentioned Vestergaard and the goal threat he provides whenever Brighton play Southampton and he is 11/1 to score anytime.

It is usually a fixture good for a penalty as well, probably because the teams hate each other so much what with it being a South Coast Derby and everything.

The last seven league games have resulted in five successful spot kicks. A penalty to be awarded can be found at a best priced 5/2 among the bookmakers carrying that market.

An interesting subplot
Other than the fact that Brighton have been unable to beat Southampton for love nor money since 2017, the Seagulls trip to St Mary’s is notable in that it brings Adam Lallana and Ben White up against their former club.

Lallana’s past with Southampton needs no introduction. The fact that White was in the Saints academy before being released at the age of 16 is often overlooked, probably because it shatters the illusion that the defender was plucked from the streets and turned into the best defender in the world by Marcelo Bielsa and The Leeds United.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Lallana and White combined so that we might finally beat Southampton for the first time since 2009?

A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Southampton away
Brighton have only won once away at Southampton in our lifetime. That came in November 2009, a stunning 3-1 success in Gus Poyet’s He Who Must Not Be Named’s first game in charge.

The day itself was pretty dreadful. A Sunday afternoon kick off after a Saturday night which had only ended at 4am made for a very grim train trip. Southampton is not exactly a place blessed with great pubs either.

And then Poyet strode out at St Mary’s, the Albion played one of the best teams in League One off the park and you knew nothing would ever be the same again for Brighton.

Shame that the club could not even bring themselves to mention his name when flagging up that Brighton trip to Southampton all over their social media profiles as part of their preview a few days ago.

A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Southampton away
Fast forward two years and it was an altogether different experience of Southampton. Brighton were 3-0 down inside an hour, Mauricio Taricco had just been sent off and the WAB Team abandoned ship, heading instead for the pub.

This proved to be a terrible decision. No, not because the Albion launched a famous comeback but because the extra drinking time meant that we decided it would be a good idea to go out on West Street once back in Brighton. This ended with a lot of sick being deposited by one member of the team all over the dancefloor in Pasha.

Southampton’s most famous fan
It does not come much more famous than Craig David, a man with a wonderful back catalogue of musical hits and who, according to Jenny from Gogglebox, was one of the best James Bonds there has been.

Prediction
Southampton (0.34 xG) 1-1 (7.71 xG) Brighton. At least the watching nation can have a bloody good laugh.