Will Brighton give De Zerbi the January transfer window he wants?

Historically, the winter transfer window has been one where the Albion’s recruitment has focused more on players for the future than the here and now. That might though have to change in January 2024, with Roberto De Zerbi having publicly revealed he has told the Brighton board they need to sign three or four players.

Speaking before the trip to Crystal Palace, De Zerbi said: “We need not only full back, we need I think in three, four position. But in the end it is for the owner and the club to decide whether to bring anyone or not. I can say my opinion, I can explain what we need if we want to compete in this way.”

Tony Bloom recently reaffirmed his long-held position on doing limited business in January, with a specific focus on outgoings: “I don’t like to do much business in January. I can’t foresee any of our main players being sold in January. We just don’t do that. I’m not saying certain players might not be sold but none of our main players.”

But what of incoming transfers? Will Bloom open up his chequebook and back De Zerbi? There are several reasons as to why Brighton should support their manager adequately in the winter window.

Reasons Brighton will back De Zerbi in January
Firstly, the current level of injuries De Zerbi is having to deal with. Had Brighton not been so blighted, the need for reinforcements would be less pressing.

So depleted is the first team squad, however, that De Zerbi has found himself fielding four teenagers on the pitch at the same time. Each matchday squad is having to be supplemented by three or four players from the Under 21s.

The impact of injuries has been particularly felt in the back full and attacking midfield roles. Andy Naylor recently wrote in The Athletic that Pervis Estupinan is not expected back any time soon.

Julio Enciso meanwhile underwent a second minor operation on his meniscus injury and will be ruled out until February. The injury Joel Veltman picked up at Arsenal will likely keep him out for the next two months.

Secondly, the Albion’s fixture congestion shows no sign of easing into 2024. Brighton are into the last 16 of the Europa League and De Zerbi will no doubt want to have a real go at the FA Cup again, playing strong teams in every round.

Thirdly, the Asian Cup and the African Cup of Nations bring added complications. Both run between January 12th and February 11th 2024.

Kaoru Mitoma (Japan) and Simon Adingra (Ivory Coast) are certain call ups. Tariq Lamptey (Ghana) will probably go if fit and Cameron may take Carlos Baleba.

In the unlikely event Brighton were to recall Abdallah Sima from his loan at Rangers, he could jet straight out to represent Senegal. The Under 21s will also lose Samy Chouchane to Tunisia.

Japan will be expected to go far in the Asian Cup, as will Ivory Coast as host nation of AFCON. If both were to reach their respective finals, Mitoma and Adingra would miss games against Wolves, Luton Town, Crystal Palace and Spurs.

Fourthly – and perhaps the strongest incentive for Brighton to back De Zerbi in January – is the current contract negotiations between club and head coach.

Given speculation linking De Zerbi with Real Madrid, Manchester United and assorted Serie A clubs, De Zerbi’s indications that he wishes to remain with the Albion are welcome.

“I feel very well in Brighton,” De Zerbi said before Brighton beat Brentford 2-1 at the Amex. “Yes, we are speaking about the new contract, it is not done yet.”

“I usually work to be happy and to enjoy. I feel very good in Brighton. We have to analyse the target. If the targets are the same as the club, it’s an honour for me working in Brighton.”

“I don’t try to reach the higher level. Most important for me is working seriously, to work with good players. It’s important for me to fix an important target”.

The implication seems to be that provided Brighton meet his ambition and targets, De Zerbi will happily sign a new contract. This should surely encourage the club to support De Zerbi’s wish for three or four additions.

Can Brighton buy well in January?
The Sky Sports News transfer show has ironically begun to bang the drum that Chelsea, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest are the clubs most in need of new players.

What does it say if the two clubs who have spent the most money and the one who has signed the most players are those with the greatest need to buy?

The below BlueCityBrain graphic on five-year net transfer spend remains instructive. It may also provide some helpful clarification for Erik ten Haag, who stated after losing 3-1 to a Brighton side costing £16 million: “I think all the teams are spending a lot of money. I think also Brighton, they spend money as everyone is doing.”

As you can see, there is only a slight difference between the £134 million profit Brighton have made since 2018 and the £676 million loss posted by Unted.

Maybe Ten Hag would like to consider the respective club’s options on the wing, where Mitoma, Adingra, Enciso and Solly March cost a combined £16 million compared with the £160 million United paid for Jadon Sancho and Antony.

Issues facing Brighton in January
The two obvious positions for Brighton to strengthen in January as per the wishes of De Zerbi are at full back and on the wings.

But both these areas present the normal January conundrum – if you buy to cover an immediate shortage, what happens when players return to full fitness or in the case of Mitoma and Adingra, from international duty?

The current injury situation may lead the club to explore bringing Brighton players currently on loan back to the Amex to fill the gaps, rather than forking out for permanent additions.

For example, Cam Peupion has returned from Cheltenham Town. Although this was due to a lack of game time with the League One Robins, he could find himself covering on the bench for the Albion in the Premier League.

Full backs
At the start of the season, many Brighton fans suggested the club needed to buy another full back with a particular focus on the left hand side.

This was despite there being a wide range of plausible options at both right back and left back. Joel Veltman, Tariq Lamptey, James Milner, Pervis Estupinan and Igor Julio offered natural defensive cover, backed up by midfielders like March, Pascal Gross and Jack Hinshelwood.

There might even have been some expectation to have seen England Under 20 left back Imari Samuels by now.

De Zerbi has responded to the full back crisis by using Gross and Hinshelwood in the roles against Brentford and Burnley but giving them free reign to go wherever they want. Carlos Baleba in turn would drop between the two central defenders from midfield, forming a back three.

But with Estupinan, Lamptey, March, Milner and now Veltman all having been ruled in recent weeks, this could be an area Brighton finally look to strengthen.

There are no shortage of rumours linking the Albion to young full backs who could also play further forward – most notably, the contest with Manchester City for 19 year-old Argentinian left back Valentin Barco.

Brighton are also one of the many clubs reportedly interested in two 20-year-old right backs; Seville’s Juanlu Sanchez and Flamengo’s Wesley França.

Wingers
With the wing positions so key to DeZeriBall, there is real concern over how the absence of Mitoma and Adingra from what appears a friendly run of fixtures against Wolves, Luton and Palace will impact Brighton.

Add in the long-term absences of March, Enciso and Ansu Fati and the Albion will be desperately short of attacking options through January and February.

Joao Pedro and Facundo Buonanotte both look more comfortable playing centrally. That leaves 18-year-old Adrian Mazilu once he arrives from Farul Constanta and 19-year-old Benico Baker-Boaitey as the only wide options available, along with the aforementioned Peupion.

The problem Brighton face in signing new wide players for De Zerbi in January is that this is not a position where the Albion are particularly short of options, once injuries clear up and Sima and Jeremy Sarmiento return from their respective loans with Rangers and West Brom.

Therefore, the option of De Zerbi having to muddle through with players filling gaps out-of-position cannot be discounted.

On the transfer front, Rangers are hoping to sign Sima on a permanent basis. Coming in, Brighton have been linked with 20-year-old Juventus winger Samuel Iling-Junior.

Strikers
Danny Welbeck made a welcome return from the bench against Arsenal before scoring the equaliser at Crystal Palace. His fitness will be key over the rest of the season with Evan Ferguson suffering a dip in form.

Deniz Undav continues to impress at Stuttgart, winning Bundesliga Player of the Month for November ahead of Harry Kane. Sima as already noted is continuing to knock in the goals.

Had either player remained at the Amex this season rather than going out on loan, they could have eased the burden on Ferguson and provided De Zerbi with greater options up front.

Reports suggest Stuttgart have a right to buy clause with Undav, which they will surely activate. This means we will probably not see Undav in an Albion shirt again.

With Ferguson and Pedro the only centre forwards available to De Zerbi these past two months whilst Welbeck was out, Josh Duffus, Mark O’Mahony and Luca Barrington have all sat on the bench in recent weeks.

Not a transfer window goes by when Brighton fans do not think the club needs to sign a striker – it would be interesting to know if it is one of the positions De Zeri has told the board reinforcements are needed this January.

Links with potential forwards have been limited, although one which seems to be gathering strengtg is the potential signing of pacey Hoffenheim striker Max Beier.

Midfielders
Central midfield has been less affected by injuries than most positions, although Brighton do look weaker there than last season after the sales of Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo.

Gross, Baleba, Hinshelwood, Milner, Adam Lallana, Billy Gilmour and Mahmoud Dahoud can all play the deeper midfield roles. Lalllana, Gross, Pedro and Buonanotte provide options as number 10s.

With Jakub Moder now back in action and hopefully receiving ever-increasing game time, there appears less need from a numbers point of view at least for reinforcements.

De Zerbi might argue that better quality is needed in January in an attempt to replace the admittedly world class ability of Mac Allister and Caicedo.

The club also have five players on loan. Steve Alzate is the most likely to make a permanent move sooner rather than later, whilst Marc Leonard’s form at Northampton has reportedly interested a number of Championship clubs.

It has been a more mixed period for Kacper Koslowski at Vitesse Arnhem, Jensen Weir at Blackpool and Yasin Ayari at Coventry City. The Albion are likely to be particularly frustrated by Ayari’s lack of game time with the Sky Blues.

Centre Backs
In terms of players able to cover each position, Brighton actually started the season with the lowest numbers at centre back. The four options available to De Zerbi were Lewis Dunk, Jan Paul Van Hecke, Adam Webster and Igor, supplemented by the possibility of Veltman covering.

Despite this and Adam Webster missing much of the season with an unspecified issue, the Albion have managed to rotate successfuly between this group of players.

Veltman’s injury might mean change that, although the way Baleba has dropped in as a sweeper mid-game recently suggests he could play in a back three if required. It would also be no surprise to see Hinshelwood pop up there.

In terms of Under 21s, Leigh Kavanagh and Ed Jackson have been named on the first team bench and Samuels played at centre back on the USA tour in the summer.

Ed Turns remains on loan with Leyton Orient whilst illness issues look likely to determine what happens with Odel Offiah at Hearts.

Brighton continue to be linked with 22-year-old Derby County defender Eiran Cashin, who is currently due to become a free agent in the summer.

Goalkeepers
The one position De Zerbi would appear to be happy with going into January is goalkeeper. De Zerbi recently praised Jason Steele and Bart Verbruggen for the way in which they have responded to his decision to give them a 50-50 split of games across all competitions.

Carl Rushworth and James Beadle continue to enjoy successful seasons out on loan. Indeed, Beadle’s form at Oxford United has led to stories that Birmingham City and Sheffield Wednesday want to upgrade his level of football by taking him from League One to the Championship.

Kjell Scherpen had also been hugely impressive at Sturm Graz until a serious knee injury requiring surgery ruled him out for the rest of the season.

What happens next with Scherpen is unclear, although reports from Austria suggest Sturm are looking to agree a continuation of the loan for 2024-25 whilst Brighton may look to address the reported short time left on Scherpen’s contract.

Peter Finn