Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace: Alexa, show the most predictable result ever

Sometimes, you would rather stay for seven nights at The Cecil Hotel than be a Brighton & Hove Albion supporter. Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace was one of those occasions.

The worst thing was that you could see defeat at the hands of the Eagles coming a mile off. Brighton were unbeaten in six, keeping five clean sheets in their best run of top flight form since 1981, including victories over Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool.

Palace meanwhile had just lost 3-0 at home to Burnley with pressure mounting on Roy Hodgson. The Holmesdale Fanatics even borrowed a bedsheet from one of their mothers to scrawl a message of dissatisfaction and hung it outside the training ground in the lead up to game number 145 between these two old enemies.

There was no Wilfried Zaha for the visitors, either. Injury prevented the forward who has so often been a thorn in Brighton’s side from making the trip to the Amex. Palace had not scored a goal without Zaha this season, let alone taken a point when their talisman had been absent.

From outsiders unversed in the ways of Brighton & Hove Albion, everything looked set up perfectly for the Seagulls to pick up three points. That was reflected in the odds – Palace were as big at 9/2 to win on the morning of the game.

What the rest of the world fails to realise is that the more likely a Brighton victory appears to be, the bigger the chance that they will find a way to spectacularly cock things up. And boy, did the Albion excel themselves in that department on this occasion.

Brighton had 25 shots over the course of the 90 minutes. Palace had three. The Eagles managed just two touches inside the Brighton penalty area, both of which resulted in goals. The Albion had 75 percent possession and 13 corners. In terms of xG, it finished Brighton 2.06 – 0.24 Crystal Palace.

None of those stats matter though, especially not when it is Brighton v Palace. The only thing that counts is what is on the scoreboard, and that read Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace.

Losing to a 94th minute winner in a game in which the Albion had been totally dominant was the ultimate example of Typical Brighton and summed this bizarre campaign up perfectly.

The first half was pretty dire all round. Hodgson had done his homework and twigged that the deeper you sit against the Albion, the more we struggle to break you down.

All of Brighton’s victories in their recent upturn have come against sides who want to attack. The Leeds United, Spurs and Liverpool have been beaten because they came forward, leaving the Albion space to exploit on the counter.

Stick 10 men behind the ball and Graham Potter’s side lack the invention to find a way through. The quick-fire passing that swept the Albion to wins at Elland Road, Anfield and over Tottenham was replaced by a return to the monotonous, sideways recycling of possession which frustrated the life out of everyone in disappointing home draws against West Bromwich Albion, Burnley and 10-man Sheffield United.

Newcastle United are the only side in the bottom eight of the Premier League who Brighton have beaten this season. When the Albion have less of the ball, they have a greater chance of winning. Come up against opponents who allow us to dominate and we are often buggered.

Hodgson’s game plan meant that if Palace were to win, they had to be clinical on the counter. Their first foray forward in the 28th minute showed that the Eagles were more than capable in that department as Jordan Ayew got away from Dan Burn far too easily to sweep a low cross into the box.

Still, there did not appear much danger as Ben White and Robert Sanchez were both on the scene. Jean-Phillipe Mateta though had other ideas, producing an improvised backheel finish which went through the legs of White and then the legs of Sanchez.

Having conceded just twice in 675 minutes of Premier League football prior to Palace arriving at the Amex, the Albion now found themselves trailing 1-0 inside half an hour to a double nutmeg from a player who was facing away from goal.

Vicente Guaita had not had a save to make in that opening 45 minutes. Potter realised something had to change and so he abandoned 3-4-1-2 in favour of 4-4-2 at half time, hauling Steve Alzate and introducing Danny Welbeck up top alongside Neal Maupay.

The Eagles were clearly not expecting such a switch and the Albion should have been out of sight long before Christian Benteke’s goal in the final seconds made it Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace.

Welbeck was straight into the action, nearly diverting Joel Veltman’s volley past Guaita. Dat Guy Welbz played an underrated role in the equaliser too which arrived 10 minutes after the restart.

Pascal Gross decided to try his luck from the edge of the box at the same time as Welbeck was on a charge through the middle. Gross’ shot deflected in the carnage caused by Welbeck, eventually finding its way to Veltman who hit a perfectly placed left footed strike inside Guaita’s near post.

It was Veltman’s first goal in Brighton colours and a finish that put the Albion’s strikers to shame. With quality like that, Potter could do a lot worse than stick Veltman up top at the Hawthorns this weekend, like an Edam-eating version of Adam Virgo.

Palace were now there for the taking. The formation change and the goal seemed to have completely bamboozled them. Four good chances came and went in the space of 10 seconds from a game of pinball in the box; Trossard was twice denied by Guaita, Welbeck’s follow up was blocked by the Palace goalkeeper and Mac Allister’s follow up to the follow up crashed into a defender.

Gary Cahill then reminded everyone why he has been one of England’s best centre backs for many years with an astonishing last-ditch block to deflect a Welbeck effort over the bar.

Brighton were so on top and Sanchez so bored that the the Albion goalkeeper took to joining in passing moves on the halfway line. Another attacking threat arrived when Adam Lallana replaced the surprisingly quiet Mac Allister.

Lallana’s first contribution was to do a passable impression of Owen Farrell by putting a good chance over the bar from a Burn cross. Lallana’s second contribution was to do a passable impression of George Ford by putting another good chance over the bar from a Veltman cross. Somebody should prevent Lallana watching anymore of the Six Nations.

Maupay was next to miss, doing all the hard work to get himself into a promising position only to hit a weak shot straight at Guaita. With teammates queuing up in better positions, both Maupay’s finishing and decision making came under the spotlight once again.

Potter’s third and final substitution followed and it was a strange one. Percy Tau, Aaron Connolly and Andi Zeqiri would all have offered a goal threat from the bench and instead the Brighton boss opted to throw on Alireza Jahanbakhsh, who struggled to make much impression in the final 10 minutes.

With each chance that Brighton had passed up in that second half of utter dominance, it seemed to become more inevitable that Palace would find a way to commit daylight robbery.

Lo and behold, after 94 minutes and 8 seconds of football they grabbed a thoroughly underserved winner. It was a terrible goal to concede from a Brighton point of view. White needlessly and stupidly hoofed the ball towards that NASA probe on Mars, giving possession back to Palace.

Andros Townsend subsequently broke down the left, Dunk and Burn were nowhere to be seen in the box and that left Benteke free at the back post to drive a volley past Sanchez who simply fell to his knees. Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace with 52 seconds remaining.

There was no coming back from that. Hodgson’s face should adorn wanted posters across Sussex for the heist he and his Palace team had pulled off. Potter was left to reflect on an all-too-familiar tale of missed chances proving costly.

Where do Brighton go from here? The hope has to be that it is merely a blip and that the recent good form is resumed against West Brom. There would be no better way to bounce back from losing in the last minute against your arch rivals then with a win against a fellow relegation candidate.

Ah yes, the dreaded r-word. Such is the nature of this crazy Premier League season that not even a six game unbeaten run has pulled the Albion away from the battle at the bottom. Yes, we have had one eye up the table but the mire below is still too close for comfort.

Fulham are within four points again and guess who they play at the weekend – Palace. Would it not be typical for our friends up the road to follow up their win at the Amex by getting turned over by the Cottagers at Selhurst Park?

Brighton could do without that happening. Big Sam Allardyce would have studied this game and be licking his lips at the prospect of facing an Albion outfit who are yet to discover to overcome opponents who try and shithouse their way to points. To get a positive result against West Brom, the Seagulls will have to find a way to break through another rugged defence.

We would put money on Brighton not being able to do it. The Typical Brighton thing to do from this point on would be lose at West Brom, beat Leicester City at home, win against Southampton away, get mugged by Newcastle at home and shock Manchester United at Old Trafford.

It is the Albion way. Always has been, always will be – and nearly as predictable as Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace. I’m off to book that stay at The Cecil…