Chance for a League Cup run for Brighton against Swansea

A month after a pretty routine 2-0 victory at Cardiff City, Brighton continue their League Cup of Welsh clubs adventure with Swansea City visiting the Amex in the third round of the competition.

Unusually for a game in the competition sponsored by the lovely Camila Cabello, there is plenty going on here to pique interest. Graham Potter faces his former club for the first time since leaving the Liberty Stadium in the summer of 2019 and it will be intriguing to see what sort of reception he gets from the Swans fans who brave the long journey.

The current occupant of the Swansea dugout is Russell Martin and he comes with strong Brighton links of his own, having been born and bred in the city.

He also happens to be one of the brightest young managers in the game who favours a pleasing brand of attacking football, which is what convinced Swansea to prise him away from MK Dons as Steve Cooper’s replacement in the summer.

To add to the plot, Martin is known to be well-liked in the corridors of power at the Albion and so we could well be coming across Potter’s future successor as Brighton boss.

Then there is the prospect of making a little bit of history. Brighton’s flying start to the season has left a real feel good factor around the club and if Potter treats the League Cup semi-seriously, it could provide a genuine shot at a day out at Wembley and a first piece of major silverware in 120 years of football, if you discount the 1910 Charity Shield.

And last but not least, it offers a chance to watch some of the bright young players in the academy who so impressed at Cardiff. Haydon Roberts, Taylor Richards, Antef Tsoungui et all are worth £15 to check out, and that is before you even consider the fact that Jurgen Locadia is likely to appear in an Albion shirt for the first time in over two years.

God knows what our favourite full time Instagram star, internationally renowned DJ and part-time footballer will bring to the party, but it will undoubtedly be entertaining whatever it is.

Oh yeah, and Potter has confirmed Tariq Lamptey will play some part after nine months injured. No biggie that, is it?

Swansea City this season
Cooper left Swansea despite leading the club to the Championship playoff final, where they were beaten 2-0 by Brentford. There has been a fair bit of player turnover this summer with nine new faces coming in and the departure of last season’s 16 goal top scorer Andre Ayew and his 14 goal partner Jamal Lowe.

A season of transition looks on the cards at the Liberty Stadium, especially as Martin finds his feet in the Championship. That has led to a slow start to the campaign with the Swans currently hovering just above the relegation zone in 21st place with one win, four draws and three defeats from eight games.

Team news
Of those who played in Cardiff 0-2 Brighton, Andi Zeqiri, Moises Caicedo and Michal Karbownik have all departed on loan.

Potter is certain to name another second string team, although several players being available again after injury and increased options in the senior squad should ensure it is a reasonably strong line up.

Chief amongst those is Lamptey whose return is sure to generate a lot of excitement. Big Dan Burn needs minutes under his belt and Enock Mwepu missed Brentford self isolating. Pascal Gross is in the same boat, although whether he is allowed to play we do not know at the time of writing.

A starting XI featuring Jason Steele, Lamptey, Burn, Roberts, Mwepu, Richards, Jakub Moder, Steve Alzate, Aaron Connolly and Locadia with possibly a little bit of Alexis Mac Allister thrown in and supplemented by a couple of youngsters should be strong enough to see off Swansea’s first choice team.

Chances are the Albion will not even need to overcome that. Martin made several changes as the Swans beat Reading and Plymouth Argyle to reach this stage and with the Championship their bread and butter, it is likely to be an under strength side who take to the field at the Amex.

Key battles
Whoever lines up in midfield for Swansea may find themselves facing the sizable task of keeping Moder in check. The Polish international midfielder was outstanding in the win at Cardiff, scoring his first Albion goal in the process.

He is far too good to be pratting around in the Carabao Cup, so the fact he is shows you just how strong Potter’s midfield options currently are.

Jake Bidwell or whichever left back Martin selects is sure to be in for a torrid time at whatever point Lamptey takes to the field.

Recent form
We will never tire of reminding you of the sort of form Brighton are currently in. Five wins from six games in all competition this season, including a best ever start to a top flight campaign.

And did we mention that the Albion are fourth in the Premier League? Because Brighton & Hove Albion are fourth in the Premier League.

• 19/09/21: Brighton 2-1 Leicester City
• 11/09/21: Brentford 0-1 Brighton
• 28/08/21: Brighton 0-2 Everton
• 24/08/21: Cardiff City 0-2 Brighton
• 21/08/21: Brighton 2-0 Watford
• 14/08/21: Burnley 1-2 Brighton

Swansea have been hard to beat in recent weeks but struggling for wins. Three draws from their last three including two 0-0 stalemates in their latest home matches does not make for particularly good reading.

Their most recent victory actually came in the previous round of the Carabao Cup, a 4-1 success against League One Plymouth Argyle.

• 18/09/21: Luton Town 3-3 Swansea
• 15/09/21: Swansea 0-0 Millllllllllllll
• 11/09/21: Swansea 0-0 Hull City
• 28/08/21: Preston North End 3-1 Swansea
• 24/08/21: Swansea 4-1 Plymouth Argyle
• 20/08/21: Bristol City 0-1 Brighton

Last time we met
Locadia goal klaxon! DJ Jurgen scored on his Premier League debut when Swansea came to the Amex towards the end of February 2018. Glenn Murray bagged a brace and Anthony Knockaert was also in target in a 4-1 win, still the Albion’s biggest of their current top flight spell.

The result pushed Swansea deeper into the relegation battle at the same time as putting some breathing space between Brighton and the drop zone.

It also earned Chris Hughton the Manager of the Month award, completing an unbeaten February which also featured a win over West Ham United and a draw at Stoke City.

Brighton v Swansea City head-to-head
Brighton and Swansea have faced each other on 64 different occasions since the first meeting in 1919, the Swans being one of the few sides who the Albion have met in all four of the current Football League divisions, the old Division Three South, the FA Cup, the League Cup and the Paint Pot.

Swansea lead the head-to-head with 25 wins to the Seagulls’ 17 and there have been 22 draws. The reason that the Swans have been so dominant is largely because of Brighton’s inability to score goals in the fixture. In 25 of those 64 meetings, they have drawn a blank.

Glenn Murray’s winner in the 1-0 victory at the Liberty Stadium in November 2017 ended a barren run of five games without a goal against Swansea.

Things were even worse in the early part of the last century – between 1920 and 1949, the sides met 14 times in Division Three South with Brighton failing to score on 10 of those occasions.

A reason why Brighton will win
If Potter takes it seriously, Brighton win. It is that simple.

A reason why Swansea will win
There is of course the prospect that Potter will not take it seriously. In the 2019-20 season, a weakened team crashed out of the FA Cup at the third round stage to Sheffield Wednesday, who themselves did not exactly go full strength.

The reaction to that defeat was so bad amongst supporters that Paul Barber used his next set of programme notes to try and tell us how to support the team, blissfully ignoring the fact that a lot of people paid £25 and ended up watching a reserves side who looked like they wanted to be anywhere but the Amex.

Four months prior to that result, Potter sent out a team of children to exit the League Cup against Aston Villa. If he treats Swansea the same way, then Brighton could well be on the end of another defeat.

The good news though is that he took both competitions seriously last season, the penny seeming to have dropped that fans want to see the Albion go for silverware and that a Premier League squad and academy as expensively assembled as Brighton’s should be able to compete on multiple fronts.

Brighton v Swansea City betting
Betting on Carabao Cup football before the teams are announced is a risky business. Still, we like the look of Moder to score anytime, currently available at 13/2.

That seems like a big price given that he has goals in him, as proven against both England and Cardiff in the past six months.

Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 2-0 Swansea City
Prediction of Aaron Connolly misses from inside the six yard box: Two
Prediction of Jurgen Locadia goals: Five (at least).