Is it must-win for Brighton at Burnley?
Hands up, who realised quite how difficult Brighton & Hove Albion’s final six matches of the season are after the trip to relegation threatened Burnley?
Not me. Or maybe they never seemed that difficult when the Seagulls were playing well under Roberto De Zerbi. Now though, it appears a daunting run-in which makes qualifying for Europe challenging.
Title chasing Manchester City and Champions League hopefuls Manchester United and Aston Villa at the Amex. Chelsea have to visit Sussex too, which looks by far and away the easiest home fixture left.
On the road, Brighton go to in-form Plucky Little Bournemouth and Newcastle United, who themselves are in the battle for Europe and needing results to prevent Eddie Howe getting an invitation to talk at the Saudi consulate. There seems little prospect that the Albion beheading home from St James’ Park with all three points.
Or picking up all three points from any of those other five matches, based on what we have seen over the past month. Which means Burnley represents the only truly winnable game left.
Lose or draw against the Clarets and that is surely curtains for the dream of Europa League or Conference football in 2024-25.
A season which included some of the greatest nights in Albion history against Marseille, AEK Athens and Ajax will end up petering out into nothingness.
Not that Turf Moor is an easy place to go. It can be like stepping into a TADIS and travelling back to the 1800s. Pre-game pints will only cost you 37p but there is almost always a dose of homophobia from the locals.
Traditionally, those cheap beers have been a necessity for Brighton fans making the long trip to Lancashire due to results at Burnley being pretty woeful.
Before the 2019-20 season, the Albion had won only twice in their previous 12 visits to Turf Moor. That record has since improved to two out of three in the past four campaigns, so hope may yet spring eternal.
Brighton players and managers who have experienced considerable woe in Burnley include Gus Poyet He Who Must Not be Named and, of course, the great Mark McCammon.
Poyet You Know Who stormed out of the dugout with five minutes still to play when his Albion side lost 1-0 at Turf Moor on Good Friday 2012, walking all the way around the pitch, past the away end and disappearing down the tunnel.
It was an extraordinary thing for a manager to do, especially as the Albion were still technically in the race for the Championship playoffs.
Poyet The Dark Lord’s moment of madness was nothing compared to the incident involving McCammon and Mark McGhee seven years earlier, however.
Not only did McGhee haul McCammon at half time, but the manager then threw him McCammon the team bus ahead of the journey home.
Cue a very bewildered Brighton striker wandering into Burnley town centre to join a very bewildered set of Albion fans on the train home.
Fingers crossed Evan Ferguson or Danny Welbeck are not spotted on Saturday night’s 7.06 Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston service.
Actually, it would be quite unlikely to spot Ferguson stocking up on Strongbow Dark Fruits from the buffet carriage. He remains injured, one of nine players De Zerbi is without for the trip to Burnley.
The latest additions to the never-ending injury list are Julio Enciso and Tariq Lamptey. Enciso has now picked up two separate niggling injuries in two months since his return from meniscus surgery; a reminder of how complicated and difficult that particular problem is to return from.
Lamptey meanwhile had been on his best run of matches in over two years. Should this prove to be another lengthy spell on the sidelines, the Albion may well be willing to consider offers for him in the not-too-distant future.
On the positive side, De Zerbi used his pre-game press conference to confirm that Bart Verbruggen will start in goal. The Dutchman has been excellent over the past month and deserves an extended run to stake his claim as number one.
Having a settled first choice can only help an Albion defence that has otherwise been pretty leaky this season. If Verbruggen and Co can keep a clean sheet against the Clarets, that will be a good start towards helping Brighton to the result they need to keep the campaign alive.
Burnley though will fancy their own chances of recording a shutout. Vincent Kompany recently switched from James Trafford in goal – outstanding in the 1-1 draw between the sides at the Amex in November – to Kosovan international Arijanet Muric.
The Clarets have taken five points from the four matches Muric has started, earning high praise for his performances in the win over Brentford and 2-2 draw at Chelsea in particular.
So we have two in-form goalkeepers. A Burnley side who are the second-lowest scorers in the division. Brighton who have failed to score in five games out of eight. And – perhaps most tellingly of all – nine of the past 14 matches between the sides have ended in a draw.
Forget The Grand National and stick £20 on a 0-0.
