Match Preview: Beat Newcastle and Brighton can move clear of the drop
You might be expecting a match preview for Brighton v Newcastle to feature the term “six pointer” on a frequent basis, but not here at WeAreBrighton.com
That is because the Albion are a strange team. Graham Potter has somehow created a side who can compete with the best teams in the league, but cannot beat the lesser sides.
Brighton have taken four points off Liverpool this season. Spurs were defeated at the Amex. Manchester United needed a 97th minute penalty after the final whistle had blown to leave Sussex with victory. Chelsea relied on a penalty after a Steve Alzate mistake and a heavy deflection.
Contrast those performances against the big boys with the matches against Burnley, West Brom, Sheffield United, Fulham and Crystal Palace at the Amex.
Brighton have just four points from a possible 15 from games against those bottom eight opponents, which goes a long way towards explaining why the Albion have spent the entire season hovering just above the relegation zone.
It would therefore be no surprise to see the Albion fail to defeat Newcastle, only to then pick up points from Manchester United away and Everton at home in the next two.
Which is why nobody should get too het up on what happens against Steve Bruce’s side. There will still be nine games left to play with Brighton better suited to winning some of those compared to against a struggling Toon. It has just been that sort of season.
Newcastle United this season
You might think that it has been one long struggle at St James’ Park this season but that is not actually the case. The Toon were 10th as recently as Christmas, only for an horrific run of two wins in 19 games to plunge them into the relegation battle.
When we spoke to NUFCBlog.co.uk in the lead up to the game, they could not believe that Bruce was still in a job after such a run. We had to point out that Potter has survived runs of two wins in 19 and two wins in 18 in the past two seasons, so it is no longer uncommon for managers to survive such barren spells.
The difference between Brighton and Newcastle of course is that the Albion seem to have a long-term plan of a new style of football with young players and a young manager. Tony Bloom looks likely to stick with it come-what-may, so you can at least see why he keeps the faith even when results are grim.
Newcastle in contrast just seem to be freefalling. As NUFCBlog.co.uk so wonderfully put it, Bruce is like a grandfather clock in a digital age.
He has fallen out with his players, the fans and the media by banning journalists who report stories from inside the camp which he considers to have besmirched him.
Acrimony is rifer now around St James’ than it perhaps has ever been, which is why a lot of people can see Brighton and Fulham surviving and Newcastle being the side who join Sheffield United and West Brom in the Championship next season.
Recent form
We have already used our match preview to note the terrible form Newcastle are in with two wins in 19, those coming away at Everton and home to Southampton in the space of a couple of weeks at the end of January – but Brighton have not exactly been pulling up many trees, either.
Last weekend’s 2-1 success at Southampton was the Albion’s first win in seven. It is fair to say that this game looks about as appealing for a neutral to spend their Saturday night watching as root canal surgery.
Brighton v Newcastle head-to-head
Newcastle are one of the few clubs in the Premier League who Brighton lead the head-to-head against. In 27 previous meetings, there have been 11 Albion wins, seven Toon victories and nine draws.
Amongst the highlights were Brighton securing their first ever promotion to the top flight on Tyneside in May 1979, Bryan Wade scoring all four goals in a 4-2 victory against Newcastle on his full Albion debut in 1991 and Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named eliminating top flight Toon from the FA Cup in consecutive seasons during the first couple of years at the Amex.
Brighton & Hove Albion’s Head-to-Head record with Newcastle
Last six meetings between Brighton and Newcastle United
• Newcastle 0-3 Brighton (Premier League, 20/09/20)
• Brighton 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League, 20/07/20)
• Newcastle 0-0 Brighton (Premier League, 21/09/19)
• Brighton 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League, 27/04/19)
• Newcastle 0-1 Brighton (Premier League, 20/10/18)
• Newcastle 0-0 Brighton (Premier League, 30/12/17)
Another reason that our match preview might put Joe Public off watching Brighton v Newcastle is what has happened between the clubs since we were promoted to the top flight together in 2017.
Before the Albion’s 3-0 win at St James’ in September, this was officially the worst match in Premier League history ever having been played six times with an average of 0.33 goals per game.
0-0. 0-0. 1-1. 0-1. 0-0. 1-0. If you can look past the boringness of it, then you will also note that Brighton are unbeaten in the top division against Newcastle. It would be very nice if things stay that way.
Team news
Brighton have no fresh injury doubts and could be boosted by the early return of Aaron Connolly from a broken rib. Now, a cynic might suggest that Connolly never had a broken rib and the Albion just came up with a reason to keep him out of the side when they discovered he had broken Covid-19 guidelines by inviting a woman to his house for a romp.
Once the story of Connolly scoring more effectively in the bedroom than he has on the pitch this season appeared in the newspapers, there was no need to carry on with the injury pretence and so he is now inline to return, depending on how strongly Potter feels about the lack of discipline.
Newcastle meanwhile travel south without arguably their two best players, Allan Saint-Maximim and top scorer Callum Wilson. There are also doubts about whether Miguel Almiron will be fit, all of which would give the Albion a big boost.
Newcastle United’s dangermen
Take away Wilson’s 10 goals and Newcastle would be in even bigger trouble than they are. Of those players who will make the trip to the Amex, then goalkeeper Martin Dubravka is probably most important to a Toon victory.
We all know that Brighton are not clinical enough and that means a half decent shot stopper has the chance of a field day against the Albion.
Dubravka is certainly that, as those dull past results against Newcastle show – he missed September’s 3-0 Brighton win through injury with Karl Darlow being the sticks.
The betting value for Brighton v Newcastle United
We are getting into a bit of a rhythm for the betting section of a home match preview against sides in the bottom half of the table and there seems to be no reason to deviate from that for Brighton v Newcastle.
One win at the Amex all year and none against opponents in the bottom half of the table and yet Brighton come into the game odds on favourites. The draw is available at a rather large 11/4.
An interesting subplot
Had Fulham beaten The Leeds United 24 hours earlier, then our Brighton v Newcastle match preview might well have had more of a six-pointer look about it as the Cottagers would have gone level on points with the Albion.
The gap though remains two points to Newcastle and three to Brighton. Whilst a win for either side would put some daylight between relegation and the victors, it now appears to be more of a must-not-lose game than a must-win.
How that is reflected in approach, particularly when it comes to Newcastle who may now be happier to settle for a draw, will be interesting.
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Newcastle United at home
Adam El-Abd doing a paso doble on the pitch with a giant inflatable FA Cup. Not just a good memory of Newcastle at home, but one of the best memories of the Amex Era.
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Newcastle United at home
Last season’s 0-0 at the Amex was one of the most boring games of football Brighton have ever been involved in. It was one of those occasions where you were actually glad that fans were not allowed as going all the way to Falmer would have been an even bigger waste of everyone’s time than watching on the telebox.
Newcastle United’s most famous fan
Ant & Dec will miss the game, busy presenting Saturday Night Takeaway on ITV. If Brighton v Newcastle is as boring again as that aforementioned last meeting at the Amex, we might well join them.
Prediction
Newcastle will not want to lose and when teams set up defensively against Brighton, we are buggered. Either a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw.
