Match Preview: Brighton face not-Boxing Day trip to West Ham
We are in the middle of a pretty religious time of year, so what better way to start this West Ham United v Brighton match preview than with a confession?
Back in September, the esteemed website you are currently reading tipped West Ham to be relegated. One of the more established Premier League clubs normally gets dragged into the battle and in a summer in which the Hammers’ own club captain was tweeting criticism of the owners and there was lasting disgruntlement among fans over David Moyes getting a second crack at the job, West Ham looked likely to be that club.
How wrong can you be? Moyes has done a fine job and his team look unlikely to trouble the the bottom three. Instead, the two ‘established’ clubs joining the division’s relative newcomers of Fulham, West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield United in the battle to stay up are Burnley and, er, Brighton. Which makes this another important game for Graham Potter’s Seagulls.
West Ham United this season
It was young Grady Diangana’s departure to West Bromwich Albion for £18 million which sparked Mark Nobles’ criticism of the West Ham board. And whilst Diangana leaving was meant to provide all the evidence needed about a club in crisis, Moyes had not read the script and instead the Hammers have not had to look over their shoulders once so far.
Not so long ago, they hit the dizzy heights of fifth in the table. Some of their more impressive results include hammering Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-0, winning 3-0 at Leicester City, coming from 3-0 down with 10 minutes remaining to draw 3-3 with Tottenham Hotspur and taking a point off Manchester City.
All that has led the Hammers to currently reside in 10th spot. It is quite the turnaround for a side who spent most of last season in and around the relegation zone. Under Moyes, West Ham are showing the sort of progression that Brighton had hoped would come under Graham Potter.
Recent form
The good news for the Albion is that their hosts have stuttered a little over the past four games. A 3-0 defeat to rivals Chelsea was preceded by a home draw with Crystal Palace and a 3-1 beating by Manchester United. The Leeds United are the only side they have beaten in December so far.
Nobody needs a reminder of Brighton’s ghastly form, but the Albion are far better on the road than at the Amex. If we were writing a West Ham v Brighton preview and the game was taking place in Sussex, you could justify throwing in a lot of doom and gloom after one home win in 16 attempts.
That it takes place at the London Stadium – a venue where Brighton have never lost – gives a little cause for optimism that the Albion might avoid ruining Christmas with another poor result.
West Ham United v Brighton head-to-head
There have been 66 previous meetings between West Ham and Brighton. The sides were frequent opponents in the Southern League pre-1920, facing off on 27 occasions between 1903 and 1915.
Once West Ham joined the Football League, meetings were rarer than a French steak. It was not until 1978 that the clubs encountered each other again, since when there have been 27 further encounters.
The Hammers always used to dominate, but times have changed since Brighton joined the Premier League in 2017. The Albion are yet to lose to West Ham in their current spell in the top flight, improving their record in the head-to-head to 17 wins, 20 draws and 30 defeats from 67 matches.
Brighton’s head-to-head record with West Ham United
Last six meetings
• West Ham United 3-3 Brighton (Premier League, 01/02/20)
• Brighton 1-1 West Ham United (Premier League, 17/08/19)
• West Ham United 2-2 Brighton (Premier League, 02/01/19)
• Brighton 1-0 West Ham United (Premier League, 05/10/18)
• Brighton 3-1 West Ham United (Premier League, 03/02/18)
• West Ham United 0-3 Brighton (Premier League, 20/10/17)
Three wins and three draws from the past six meetings represents a good return for Brighton. It looked like that mini-run would come to an end in February when West Ham led 3-1 late on at the London Stadium, only for Potter to make a double change which turned the game on its head.
On came Ezequiel Schelotto (yes, really) and Solly March who both terrified the Hammers in their brief time on the pitch. That led to Glenn Murray converting the sort of opportunity we have seen every Brighton striker squander on a frequent basis this season to rescue a point with a 3-3 draw.
Team news
Potter must be looking at wholesale changes from last week’s 1-1 with Sheffield United. We do not really need to use our West Ham preview to remind anyone that Brighton scraping a draw against a side who arrived at the Amex with one point from 13 matches and who played for an hour with 10 men was not very good.
What Potter will do though is about as clear as a shot of Bailey’s – especially with another winnable game 48 hours later at home to relegation rivals Arsenal.
Potter’s team selection could come down to which match out of Hammers or Gunners he views as must winnable. You would surely start the likes of Danny Welbeck, Leandro Trossard and Adam Lallana in the game you think you have a better chance of winning.
Who knows which that is though? West Ham are higher in the table than Arsenal; but Brighton are miles better away from home, as shown by the fact that people got more Lynx Africa gift sets for Christmas (2) than the Albion have managed home wins in 2020 (1).
What we do know is Tariq Lamptey is unlikely to feature at the London Stadium, which is a massive blow for the Albion. His attacking intent was sorely missed against the Blades.
West Ham United’s key players
Part of West Ham’s success story so far in 2020-21 has been because they are one of the few Premier League clubs who have not been impacted by an increasing number of injuries.
Moyes has pretty much had a fully fit squad to chose from each week. Last season, the Hammers had to cope without Lukasz Fabianski for large periods. When you take a goalkeeper of his ilk out of any side they will always struggle.
Declan Rice is enjoying an excellent campaign and it surely will not be long until one of the big boys pays a significant amount of money for him.
Said Benrahma is also worth keeping an eye on. His game time has been limited since arriving from Brentford, but he has grown to be more influential throughout December.
A lot of Brighton fans felt that Potter would have done well to sign Benrahma from Brentford to boost the Albion’s firepower in the summer. Fingers crossed he does not become another player we were heavily linked with who comes to haunt us.
The betting value for West Ham United v Brighton
The past three meetings between West Ham and Brighton have ended in stalemates. That makes the draw at 5/2 an appealing price.
An interesting subplot
Despite Brighton’s struggles so far this season, one of the more intriguing statistics has been that they have pretty much matched last season’s results against opponents they have faced.
Only Leicester away which went from a 0-0 draw in 2019-20 to a 3-0 loss in 2020-21 is a worse outcome. With their next three fixtures against West Ham, Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers – who Brighton have lost to once in a combined 20 matches – one of the few justifications that Brighton are not going backwards this season comes under threat.
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of West Ham United away
We seem to mention this in every West Ham v Brighton match preview, but it will never get old. One of the best away days in Albion history took place at Upton Park in 2004 when Mark McGhee’s side spent 90 minutes in their own half, faced 270 shots and yet came away with a 1-0 win thanks to a Guy Butters header.
Nobody could quite believe what they had witnessed. Butters said that the players came off after the game and just sat in the changing room laughing at the daylight robbery they had pulled off.
It was about as far removed a performance from Potterball as you can imagine. But my God, what we would give for a 1-0 win in which picking up actual points was prioritised over having 70% possession and learning.
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of West Ham United away
Carlos Tevez v Kerry Mayo in the third round of the FA Cup in 2007 was more brutal than watching Usain Bolt race against Alan Carr.
West Ham United’s most famous fan
Danny Dyer is doing a great job portraying the trials and tribulations of Mick Carter in EastEnders at the minute and The Wall has become essential Saturday night viewing at WAB Towers all the while we are locked in our own homes. His daughter is pretty nice too.
Prediction
Another draw in which Brighton have lots of chances but take nowhere near enough of them. We will however take the positives.
