Match Preview: Can Albion avoid a ‘Typical Brighton’ thing at Burnley?

Long standing Brighton & Hove Albion fans do not need our Burnley match preview to tell them what is likely to happen at Turf Moor.

After back-to-back victories against the might of Liverpool and Spurs and a club-record run of four top flight clean sheets in a row, history tells us that the Seagulls will follow all that up with defeat against Burnley.

We have been here before, many times. Secure a biggest win in 43 years by beating Northwich Victoria 8-0, follow it up by losing 1-0 at home to Tranmere Rovers.

Go down 1-0 at home to Walsall who play for over half the game with only nine men, knock Manchester City out of the League Cup a week later.

It is the Brighton way. And we will probably follow up defeat in Lancashire by eliminating Leicester City from the FA Cup on Wednesday night.

Burnley this season
Burnley endured a pretty ghastly start to the season. When they drew 0-0 at the Amex at the beginning of November, it was only the second point they had won all year and their eighth game of the campaign without a victory, a run of form which had the Clarets rock bottom of the table.

They beat Crystal Palace (hehehe) a week later and since then, there has been no looking back for Sean Dyche and his side. They have won six of their subsequent 14 Premier League matches, including wins at both Arsenal and Liverpool and are now eight points clear of the relegation zone.

It seems like Burnley do this every year; start badly but always turn things around and end up relatively safe in mid table. The Clarets will surely finish higher than their current 17th position and victory over Brighton would seem their leapfrog the Albion.

For that reason, the Seagulls could really do with a result. The match also provides a chance for Graham Potter to deliver a victory over a side below us in the table for the first time this season.

So far, Brighton have failed to beat Burnley, Sheffield United, West Bromwich Albion and Fulham (twice) who all came into those matches lower placed than the Seagulls.

Recent form
Both teams are in decent form. You probably do not need this preview to remind you that Brighton have picked up 10 points from their previous four league games whilst Burnley won at Liverpool a fortnight before the Albion’s success at Anfield and followed that up by beating Aston Villa 3-2.

The Clarets have lost their past two matches but they were tough ones, going down 2-0 to a Chelsea side who were enjoying the new manager bounce provided by Thomas Tuchel’s appointment and losing by the same score against a Manchester City outfit who are sweeping everyone aside currently.

Burnley have been impressive at Turf Moor with Southampton the only side from outside the big six to have won in Lancashire so far this season.

Brighton v Burnley head-to-head
Draws tend to be the most common outcome whenever Brighton meet Burnley with 14 recorded from 36 matches. That is not to say that the fixture is boring though; far from it, especially 10-15 years ago when it used to spark the sort of meltdowns rarely seen outside of a Handforth Parish Council meeting.

Twice in the space of a year Mark McCammon lost the plot during games with Burnley. Mark McGhee banished him from the team coach, forcing a bewildered McCammon to get the train home with supporters following a 1-1 draw at Turf Moor in April 2005.

Then in January 2006, he phoned into the BBC Sussex Fans Phone In to remonstrate with presenter Ian Hart after Harty said McCammon was not good enough.

10 minutes of the finest radio you will ever hear followed as McCammon threw his own teammates and McGhee under the bus in what was unsurprisingly his final act as an Albion player.

Fast forward five years and there was the famous game at the Amex in December 2011 when Craig Pawson sent off Romain Vincelot and Ashley Barnes inside the first 20 minutes.

That led to Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named storming down the tunnel to have a tantrum of his own. Poyet You Know Who repeated the trick in the return match five months later, disappearing with five minutes still to go and effectively throwing in the towel with Brighton only 1-0 behind and a place in the Championship playoffs still very much on the line.

It is hard to imagine Potter getting as emotional as Poyet The Dark Lord did so we can probably rule out of a repeat of that. Fingers crossed for Alireza Jahanbakhsh phoning BBC Sussex though to argue with Warren Aspinall afterwards.

Brighton’s head-to-head record with Burnley

Last six meetings
• Brighton 0-0 Burnley (Premier League, 06/11/20)
• Burnley 1-2 Brighton (Premier League, 26/07/20)
• Brighton 1-1 Brighton (Premier League, 14/09/19)
• Brighton 1-3 Burnley (Premier League, 09/02/19)
• Burnley 1-0 Brighton (Premier League, 08/12/18)
• Burnley 0-0 Brighton (Premier League, 28/04/18)

Recent meetings between Brighton and Burnley have been pretty lacking in the goal department. Three of the last seven have finished 0-0, including that November encounter at the Amex.

The Albion do not have a particularly good recent record at Turf Moor. July’s 2-1 win inspired by a classic Yves Bissouma thunderbolt and a rare Aaron Connolly goal was Brighton’s only success in their past seven visits.

Team news
The big team news for our Burnley v Brighton match preview is that Solly March not just misses the trip north but is probably out for the season after injuring his knee in the 1-0 win over Liverpool.

That comes as a cruel blow for a player who has been in the best form of his career, to the point that he must surely have been knocking on the door of an England call up.

Potter is now without his two first-choice wing backs as Tariq Lamptey is still absent. Joel Veltman may be fit to return, which would mean he comes straight back into the side with Big Dan Burn continuing on the left after his outstanding performance at Anfield.

Should Veltman not make it, then other potential options to play at right wing back include Steve Alzate, Ben White or new signing Michal Karbownik, who was on the bench against Liverpool. Elsewhere, Alexis Mac Allister could return but the game comes too soon for Danny Welbeck.

Despite all the recent injuries, Potter seems to have belatedly realised that if he offers a little bit of consistency in selection, it can do wonders for performances, results and player confidence.

Another eminently sensible line up not picked using his Team Selection Roulette Wheel against Burnley would give the Albion a real chance of avoiding the Typical Brighton scenario we laid out at the start of the preview.

Burnley’s danger men
Much of Burnley’s success is built on their defence. Ben Mee and James Tarkowski are one of the most underrated centre back partnerships in the top flight and behind them is Nick Pope, a goalkeeper who many feel should be England’s number one.

Pope finished second in the Golden Glove standings last year for most clean sheets kept in the Premier League, although he is not infallible as a mistake early on in Burnley’s previous match which allowed Gabriel Jesus to give Manchester City the lead showed. There was something rather pleasing about Pope letting Jesus score.

The betting value for Burnley v Brighton
Burnley v Brighton is always a close fought game – only four of the last 21 have had a winning margin of more than one goal. A one-goal winning margin is available at 5/4 with Betway and you can take that most familiar result of the draw at 23/10.

An interesting subplot
Given the number of players which have swapped blue and white for claret and blue in recent years, the usual subplot for a Burnley v Brighton match preview is which former Albion man is going to come back and haunt us.

There are three candidates this time. Ashley Barnes, Chris Wood and Dale Stephens. Having scored only once in three seasons in the Premier League for Brighton, our money is naturally going on Stephens in shades of Alan Navarro’s brace against the Albion for Swindon Town in 2012.

A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Burnley away
As already noted, Brighton have won just one of their past seven visits to Burnley and that took place behind closed doors, leaving slim pickings for this section of our match preview.

It is therefore a journey back to 2002 when Martin Hinshelwood took charge of the Albion for the first time as permanent manager, overseeing a 3-1 win thanks to goals from Steve Melton, Paul Brooker and Bobby Zamora..

“It’s gonna be three in a row” was the song from the away section of Turf Moor that day in reference to the Albion improving on their back-to-back league titles and challenging for a third promotion in a row.

That was a little presumptuous; 11 Division One games later and Hinshelwood had been sacked with Brighton going on to be relegated at the end of the season.

A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Burnley away
Results are rarely good at Turf Moor and to make matters worse, you can normally stick your house on some of the locals voicing their anger they about anything LGBTQ+.

The April 2018 Burnley experience was particularly grim. Alongside the homophobia, we also had to endure the spectre of Gaetan Bong getting abused for reporting that he believed local hero Jay Rodriguez had been racist towards him when Brighton knocked West Bromwich Albion out of the FA Cup three months earlier. Despite Rodriguez’s innocence never being proved, Burnley fans ripped into Bong.

All of which is a shame really as Burnley with its decent pubs and cheap beer is one of the better away days in the Premier League, contrary to popular belief. If only some sections of their support were not so backwards.

Burnley’s most famous fan
Alastair Campbell. The mastermind behind New Labour and the bloke who inspired one of the greatest television characters of all time in Malcolm Tucker.

Prediction
Burnley 1-1 Brighton. A good point to keep the Albion ticking over ahead of a couple of important home games against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace before February is out.